MP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MP - MP Materials Corp.
$58.77
-3.39 (-5.45%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
17d
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22 traders called MP this week
96% bullish • 1 bearish
96% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MP is down 15.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MP is down 15.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.02
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.67
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MP is currently trading at $58.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.01 to $67.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 93.5) compared to its historical average (84.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.08 (+34.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.08 (+34.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$55.01 -
$67.28
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.6% below Wall St target ($79.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.6% growth with -14.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$55.01 -
$67.28
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.50
Resistance Level
$72.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
93.51
Wall Street Target
$79.08
(+34.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-55.6%
Profit Margin
-50.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
93.5 vs 84.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.89
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$63.08
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$65.35
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 94→84)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Last updated: February 01, 2026 10:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael Stuart Rosenthal
SELL
150000 shares
2025-08-29
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Advanced MP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MP price and gamma walls.
