MTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$45.24
0.46 (1.03%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
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1 traders called MTDR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.04
Based on -9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.68
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $45.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.54 to $43.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTDR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.63 (+26.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTDR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.63 (+26.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$41.54 -
$43.52
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($56.63)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.1% growth with 6.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$41.54 -
$43.52
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.89
Resistance Level
$46.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.28
Wall Street Target
$56.63
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.7%
Profit Margin
22.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 8.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.51
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$50.41
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$53.48
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -23.1%)
$70.79
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -23.1%)
$32.64
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -23.1%)
$27.30
(-39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.24
Bull Case
$33.75
(-25%)
Analyst growth -30.2%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$30.68
(-32%)
Market implied -30.2%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$29.89
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Christopher P Calvert
BUY
1000 shares
2025-09-12
Benjamin T Colodney
BUY
130 shares
2025-09-12
William D Lambert
BUY
150 shares
2025-09-12
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