MTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTDR - MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$62.90
2.24 (3.69%)
▲
5d:
-2.02%
30d:
+17.5%
90d:
+48.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.41
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.21
23.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTDR is currently trading at $62.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.61 to $61.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.59, while resistance sits at $66.84. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTDR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.59, while resistance sits at $66.84. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$52.61 -
$61.48
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($67.11)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$52.61 -
$61.48
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.59
Resistance Level
$66.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.60
Wall Street Target
$67.11
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.33
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$59.79
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$58.30
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$63.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 27.3%)
$310.02
(+393%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 27.3%)
$129.66
(+106%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 27.3%)
$110.21
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.09
Bull Case
$66.91
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.0%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$60.82
(+3%)
Market implied 4.0%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$39.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$67.99
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
19
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Joseph Wm Foran
BUY
468 shares
2026-02-27
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-09
Robert T Macalik
BUY
1500 shares
2025-11-06
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