MTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$131.13
2.94 (2.29%)
▲
5d:
+0.77%
30d:
-3.83%
90d:
-1.26%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 16, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$253.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$157.60
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $131.13, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.65 to $139.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (17.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $123.82, while resistance sits at $136.68.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.92 (+25.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $123.82, while resistance sits at $136.68.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.92 (+25.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$129.65 -
$139.26
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.0% below Wall St target ($163.92)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with -4.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$129.65 -
$139.26
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.26
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.82
Resistance Level
$136.68
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.01
Wall Street Target
$163.92
(+25.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 17.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.39
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$131.66
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$131.92
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$131.12
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 46.1%)
$467.27
(+256%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 46.1%)
$409.08
(+212%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 46.1%)
$347.72
(+165%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.29
Bull Case
$167.10
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.8%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$151.91
(+17%)
Market implied 15.8%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$89.23
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Angela A Korch
BUY
190 shares
2026-03-16
Robert A Katz
BUY
37500 shares
2026-03-16
Angela A Korch
BUY
210 shares
2025-10-07
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