MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$39.55
-1.70 (-4.12%)
▼
5d:
-1.05%
30d:
+13.42%
90d:
+25.08%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.24
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.06
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $39.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.03 to $39.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.25, while resistance sits at $42.91. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.25, while resistance sits at $42.91. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$33.03 -
$39.52
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.47)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.03 -
$39.52
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.25
Resistance Level
$42.91
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.15
Wall Street Target
$39.47
(-0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.2%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 16.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.39
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$33.48
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$30.80
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$39.59
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -2.1%)
$63.11
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$37.13
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: -2.1%)
$31.56
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (54x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 53.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.72
Bull Case
$85.21
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 59.2
Base Case
$77.46
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 53.8
Bear Case
$26.34
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 45.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$50.84
(+28.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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