MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$29.61
-0.48 (-1.60%)
▼
5d:
-3.93%
30d:
-5.25%
90d:
+5.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Jan 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.72
33.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $29.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.45 to $32.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.70, while resistance sits at $32.41.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $28.70, while resistance sits at $32.41.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$30.45 -
$32.87
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($30.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$30.45 -
$32.87
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.70
Resistance Level
$32.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.17
Wall Street Target
$30.60
(+3.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.2%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 17.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.48
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$25.50
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$23.66
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→18)
$29.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 70.5%)
$157.27
(+431%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 70.5%)
$99.93
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 70.5%)
$84.94
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.00
Bull Case
$69.12
(+130%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.6
Base Case
$62.84
(+109%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.4
Bear Case
$21.37
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$36.99
(+24.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.9%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-22
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