MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$41.80
-0.32 (-0.76%)
▼
5d:
+11.14%
30d:
+26.09%
90d:
+34.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MUR is 7.5% above fair value ($38.88). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MUR is 7.5% above fair value ($38.88). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.55
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.25
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $41.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.74 to $38.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$32.74 -
$38.88
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.5% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($39.47)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.74 -
$38.88
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.06
Resistance Level
$42.91
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.90
Wall Street Target
$39.47
(-5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.2%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 17.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.08
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$36.54
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$34.17
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$41.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -2.1%)
$63.11
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: -2.1%)
$39.24
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: -2.1%)
$33.35
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (54x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 53.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.72
Bull Case
$85.21
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 59.2
Base Case
$77.46
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 53.8
Bear Case
$26.34
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 45.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$51.14
(+22.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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