NBTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBTB - NBT Bancorp Inc
$45.49
1.06 (2.39%)
▲
5d:
+3.6%
30d:
+9.56%
90d:
+12.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NBTB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NBTB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.22
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.88
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBTB is currently trading at $45.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.10 to $44.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NBTB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NBTB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$42.10 -
$44.29
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
33th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 33th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$42.10 -
$44.29
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.60
(5.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.87
Resistance Level
$45.97
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.63
Wall Street Target
$48.20
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.5%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.76
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$43.11
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$42.46
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$44.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$134.42
(+203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 9.3%)
$58.07
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 9.3%)
$49.36
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.33
Bull Case
$64.59
(+45%)
Analyst growth 37.8%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$58.72
(+32%)
Market implied 37.8%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$28.98
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$46.58
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 12:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David J Nasca
SELL
19603 shares
2025-08-13
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