NBTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBTB - NBT Bancorp Inc
$42.58
0.56 (1.33%)
▲
5d:
+1.48%
30d:
-0.47%
90d:
+0.66%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NBTB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NBTB shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.90
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.44
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBTB is currently trading at $42.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.08 to $43.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NBTB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.17 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBTB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $42.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NBTB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.17 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$41.08 -
$43.59
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($49.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$41.08 -
$43.59
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.26
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.13
Resistance Level
$42.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.29
Wall Street Target
$49.17
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.5%
Profit Margin
25.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.86
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$41.14
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$40.45
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$42.65
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.3%)
$133.72
(+214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$55.61
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 9.3%)
$47.27
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.33
Bull Case
$61.61
(+47%)
Analyst growth 37.6%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$56.01
(+33%)
Market implied 37.6%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$27.68
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$44.90
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Amy Wiles
SELL
4435 shares
2026-02-17
Timothy E Delaney
BUY
22730 shares
2026-01-28
Timothy E Delaney
BUY
10000 shares
2025-11-06
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