NEXA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NEXA - Nexa Resources S.A. Common Shares
$11.07
0.08 (0.73%)
▲
5d:
+14.48%
30d:
-11.37%
90d:
+25.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NEXA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NEXA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -16.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.77
Based on -24.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NEXA is currently trading at $11.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.90 to $12.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.0) compared to its historical average (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NEXA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NEXA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$9.90 -
$12.39
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
40th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 40th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($10.15)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.90 -
$12.39
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.95
(8.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.97
Resistance Level
$11.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.97
Wall Street Target
$10.15
(-8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.0 vs 6.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.97
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.07
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→7)
$13.83
(+25%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: -53.5%)
$56.47
(+410%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.0, Growth: -53.5%)
$10.89
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.4, Growth: -53.5%)
$9.26
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.00
Bull Case
$17.29
(+80%)
Analyst growth 71.0%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$15.71
(+64%)
Market implied 71.0%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$6.25
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.0 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$18.97
(+71.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+71.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 8:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NEXA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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