NGG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$87.99
1.15 (1.32%)
▲
5d:
+6.78%
30d:
-2.7%
90d:
+13.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NGG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NGG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$137.76
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.54
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $87.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.46 to $92.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$84.46 -
$92.33
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($92.61)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$84.46 -
$92.33
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.45
Resistance Level
$87.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.37
Wall Street Target
$92.61
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.4%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.75
(0%)
2-Year Target
$86.67
(0%)
3-Year Target
$86.58
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$86.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.4%)
$207.77
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 15.4%)
$133.61
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 15.4%)
$113.57
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.96
Bull Case
$137.61
(+68%)
Analyst growth 52.6%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$125.10
(+52%)
Market implied 52.6%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$55.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$87.00
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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