NGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGS - Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.
$38.20
-1.61 (-4.04%)
▼
5d:
-3.14%
30d:
-0.16%
90d:
+14.54%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NGS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NGS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.49
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.15
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGS is currently trading at $38.20, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.16 to $39.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.6) is in line with its historical norms (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 43.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.50, while resistance sits at $40.73. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.25 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $32.50, while resistance sits at $40.73. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.25 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$37.16 -
$39.30
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($47.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.16 -
$39.30
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.86
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.50
Resistance Level
$40.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.65
Wall Street Target
$47.25
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.5%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 18.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.49
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$39.18
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$38.86
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$39.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.7%)
$84.44
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 18.7%)
$66.55
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 18.7%)
$56.57
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$61.71
(+57%)
Analyst growth 43.6%, PE expands to 27.4
Base Case
$56.10
(+42%)
Market implied 43.6%, PE stable at 24.9
Bear Case
$26.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$40.82
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen Charles Taylor
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-06
Stephen Charles Taylor
SELL
70000 shares
2026-03-05
Stephen Charles Taylor
SELL
10000 shares
2025-12-10
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