NGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGS - Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.
$37.39
-0.35 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
-6.1%
30d:
-2.76%
90d:
+10.0%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NGS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NGS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.10
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.91
12.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGS is currently trading at $37.39, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.14 to $39.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 43.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.25 (+26.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $47.25 (+26.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$37.14 -
$39.30
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($47.25)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.1% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.14 -
$39.30
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.77
Resistance Level
$40.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.58
Wall Street Target
$47.25
(+26.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.5%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 18.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.38
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$35.40
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$34.44
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$37.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.7%)
$84.26
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 18.7%)
$62.51
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 18.7%)
$53.13
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$61.71
(+57%)
Analyst growth 43.6%, PE expands to 27.4
Base Case
$56.10
(+42%)
Market implied 43.6%, PE stable at 24.9
Bear Case
$26.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$40.59
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen Charles Taylor
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-06
Stephen Charles Taylor
SELL
70000 shares
2026-03-05
Stephen Charles Taylor
SELL
10000 shares
2025-12-10
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