NOA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOA - North American Construction Group Ltd.
$13.04
-0.28 (-2.10%)
▼
5d:
-8.3%
30d:
-21.82%
90d:
-5.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NOA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NOA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.00
34.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOA is currently trading at $13.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.52 to $16.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.1) compared to its historical average (5.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.58 (+84.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.58 (+84.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$13.52 -
$16.79
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 84.5% below Wall St target ($24.58)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.3%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.52 -
$16.79
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.06
(8.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.03
Resistance Level
$14.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.11
Wall Street Target
$24.58
(+84.5%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-96.6%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.1 vs 5.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.41
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$11.57
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$10.78
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$13.39
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 36.5%)
$184.68
(+1287%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.1, Growth: 36.5%)
$33.86
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 36.5%)
$28.78
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$29.92
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$27.20
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$9.25
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.1 to 5.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.54
(+24.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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