NOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOG - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$25.00
0.18 (0.73%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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1 traders called NOG this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.61
Based on -16.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.73
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOG is currently trading at $25.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.24 to $23.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.93, while resistance sits at $25.84.
Market Sentiment: NOG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.90 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.93, while resistance sits at $25.84.
Market Sentiment: NOG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.90 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$21.24 -
$23.59
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($29.90)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.6% growth with -8.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.24 -
$23.59
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.93
Resistance Level
$25.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.35
Wall Street Target
$29.90
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.5%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 7.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.71
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$28.74
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$30.92
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -36.5%)
$43.17
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: -36.5%)
$18.09
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: -36.5%)
$14.52
(-42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.82
Bull Case
$39.09
(+56%)
Analyst growth 45.9%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$35.54
(+42%)
Market implied 45.9%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$16.56
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced NOG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOG price and gamma walls.
