NOV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOV - NOV Inc.
$18.35
-0.25 (-1.34%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.08
8.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOV is currently trading at $18.35, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.20 to $18.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (14.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.60, while resistance sits at $19.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.60, while resistance sits at $19.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$16.20 -
$18.40
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($17.55)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.8% growth with -0.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.20 -
$18.40
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.60
Resistance Level
$19.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.35
Wall Street Target
$17.55
(-5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.7%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 14.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.31
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$20.04
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$20.80
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.58
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 27.4%)
$52.46
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 27.4%)
$38.46
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 27.4%)
$32.69
(+76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$23.23
(+27%)
Analyst growth 14.9%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$21.12
(+15%)
Market implied 14.9%, PE stable at 18.6
Bear Case
$12.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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