NPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPB - Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.
$17.28
0.29 (1.74%)
▲
5d:
+3.2%
30d:
-5.03%
90d:
+1.68%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NPB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NPB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.23
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.67
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPB is currently trading at $17.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.95 to $18.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.6) is in line with its historical norms (6.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NPB has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+26.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NPB has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+26.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$16.95 -
$18.18
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.6% below Wall St target ($21.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.95 -
$18.18
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.30
Resistance Level
$17.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.63
Wall Street Target
$21.50
(+26.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.7%
Profit Margin
35.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 6.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.59
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$16.21
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$15.84
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$16.87
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$89.29
(+426%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 9.8%)
$22.50
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$19.12
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$25.82
(+55%)
Analyst growth 42.9%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$23.48
(+41%)
Market implied 42.9%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$11.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 6.0
Stabilization Target:
$18.09
(+6.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Jeffery Dean
SELL
57619 shares
2026-03-09
Charles Alan Williams
BUY
23450 shares
2026-02-12
Charles Alan Williams
BUY
14205 shares
2026-02-11
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