NPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPB - Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.
$17.24
-0.28 (-1.60%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NPB appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.5% annual earnings decline despite 53% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NPB appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.5% annual earnings decline despite 53% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.54
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.10
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPB is currently trading at $17.24, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.01 to $18.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (6.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $17.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.17 (+22.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $17.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.17 (+22.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$17.01 -
$18.21
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.8% below Wall St target ($21.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.01 -
$18.21
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.01
Resistance Level
$19.48
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.62
Wall Street Target
$21.17
(+22.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.7%
Profit Margin
34.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 6.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.64
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$16.05
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$15.49
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$17.38
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.7%)
$92.87
(+439%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 10.7%)
$23.39
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 10.7%)
$19.88
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$27.83
(+61%)
Analyst growth 45.5%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$25.30
(+47%)
Market implied 45.5%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$11.83
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 6.3
Stabilization Target:
$19.34
(+12.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.2%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Stevens Hooker
SELL
65161 shares
2025-09-12
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