NWBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NWBI - Northwest Bancshares, Inc
$12.69
0.11 (0.87%)
▲
5d:
+1.93%
30d:
+0.48%
90d:
+3.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NWBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NWBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.25
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.71
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWBI is currently trading at $12.69, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.22 to $12.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NWBI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.76. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NWBI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$12.22 -
$12.70
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.86)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.22 -
$12.70
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.95
Resistance Level
$12.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.95
Wall Street Target
$13.86
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.60
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.51
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$12.43
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$12.63
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$39.91
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 8.0%)
$15.99
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 8.0%)
$13.59
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$20.69
(+66%)
Analyst growth 54.1%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$18.81
(+51%)
Market implied 54.1%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$8.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$12.90
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Louis J Torchio
BUY
3500 shares
2026-03-06
Timothy M Hunter
BUY
4000 shares
2025-12-05
John P Meegan
BUY
1500 shares
2025-12-01
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