NWE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NWE - NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Common Stock
$65.83
0.61 (0.94%)
▲
5d:
+1.5%
30d:
-5.9%
90d:
+2.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NWE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NWE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.72
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWE is currently trading at $65.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.11 to $70.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.5) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.43, while resistance sits at $68.44.
Market Sentiment: NWE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.43, while resistance sits at $68.44.
Market Sentiment: NWE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$66.11 -
$70.07
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($63.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$66.11 -
$70.07
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.43
Resistance Level
$68.44
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.46
Wall Street Target
$63.40
(-3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.8%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 17.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.91
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$64.00
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$63.10
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$65.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.0%)
$103.61
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 5.0%)
$76.31
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 5.0%)
$64.86
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.94
Bull Case
$95.47
(+47%)
Analyst growth 36.0%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$86.79
(+34%)
Market implied 36.0%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$43.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 17.2
Stabilization Target:
$68.79
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NWE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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