NWE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NWE - NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Common Stock
$67.86
0.23 (0.34%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NWE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NWE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.21
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.53
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWE is currently trading at $67.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.92 to $67.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.6) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $66.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $66.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$64.92 -
$67.75
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NWE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($62.60)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with 12.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$64.92 -
$67.75
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.36
(3.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.08
Resistance Level
$68.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.59
Wall Street Target
$62.60
(-7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.4%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
17.6 vs 17.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.17
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$68.72
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$69.27
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$67.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.9%)
$104.71
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.6, Growth: 6.9%)
$82.59
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 6.9%)
$70.20
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.53
Bull Case
$79.68
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.9%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$72.43
(+7%)
Market implied 8.9%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$45.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NWE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced NWE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NWE price and gamma walls.
