NWN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NWN - Northwest Natural Holding Company
$46.56
-0.49 (-1.04%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 27, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: NWN shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 2th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.1% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: NWN shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 2th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.1% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.12
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWN is currently trading at $46.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.35 to $47.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.75 (+12.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.75 (+12.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$46.35 -
$47.03
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
2th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 2th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($52.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$46.35 -
$47.03
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.17
(2.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.70
Resistance Level
$47.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.73
Wall Street Target
$52.75
(+12.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.0%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.10
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$47.14
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$47.19
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.12
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 2.5%)
$71.78
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 2.5%)
$50.62
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 2.5%)
$43.02
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$60.61
(+30%)
Analyst growth 19.2%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$55.10
(+18%)
Market implied 19.2%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$31.43
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NWN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
7500 shares
2025-10-20
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SELL
10509 shares
2025-10-15
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Advanced NWN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NWN price and gamma walls.