NXST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NXST - Nexstar Media Group, Inc. Common Stock
$196.17
-16.96 (-7.96%)
▼
5d:
-14.8%
30d:
-21.85%
90d:
-4.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NXST is down 14.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NXST is down 14.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.50
Based on -12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NXST is currently trading at $196.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $221.41 to $246.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXST is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $192.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.50 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NXST is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $192.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (21th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.50 (+27.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$221.41 -
$246.96
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
21th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 21th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($271.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.4% growth with -13.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$221.41 -
$246.96
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.44
(4.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$192.35
Resistance Level
$243.08
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.89
Wall Street Target
$271.50
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.4%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 9.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$228.90
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$245.84
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$264.03
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$213.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -29.7%)
$292.71
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: -29.7%)
$155.37
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: -29.7%)
$125.45
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 9.03 | Forward EPS (Implied): $25.49
Bull Case
$278.01
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$230.24
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$176.13
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NXST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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