OCFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OCFC - OceanFirst Financial Corp
$18.75
0.13 (0.70%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OCFC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: OCFC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.72
Based on 13.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.53
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OCFC is currently trading at $18.75, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.68 to $19.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OCFC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.86, while resistance sits at $19.90.
Market Sentiment: OCFC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.40 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OCFC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.86, while resistance sits at $19.90.
Market Sentiment: OCFC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.40 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$17.68 -
$19.22
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.68 -
$19.22
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.87
Resistance Level
$19.90
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.01
Wall Street Target
$21.40
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-36.0%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.41
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$16.28
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$15.22
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$18.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 23.2%)
$97.03
(+421%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 23.2%)
$34.84
(+87%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 23.2%)
$29.62
(+59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$40.37
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$36.70
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$12.48
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$22.79
(+22.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OCFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced OCFC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OCFC price and gamma walls.
