OGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OGS - ONE GAS, INC.
$85.29
-0.89 (-1.03%)
▼
5d:
-0.33%
30d:
-2.39%
90d:
+9.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.23
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OGS is currently trading at $85.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.32 to $87.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OGS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OGS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$85.32 -
$87.16
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$85.32 -
$87.16
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.17
(2.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.76
Resistance Level
$86.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.33
Wall Street Target
$89.86
(+4.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 17.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.51
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$86.86
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$87.21
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.07
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.7%)
$127.69
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 4.7%)
$98.98
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 4.7%)
$84.14
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$105.00
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.8%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$95.46
(+12%)
Market implied 13.8%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$57.03
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian F Brumfield
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-24
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