OGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OGS - ONE GAS, INC.
$79.56
0.47 (0.59%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$104.21
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$64.71
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OGS is currently trading at $79.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.02 to $78.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OGS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $79.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OGS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OGS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $79.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OGS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$77.02 -
$78.63
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($85.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$77.02 -
$78.63
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.02
(2.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.39
Resistance Level
$79.88
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.80
Wall Street Target
$85.00
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.17
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$79.25
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$79.33
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$78.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.6%)
$130.87
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 7.6%)
$98.57
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 7.6%)
$83.78
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$95.61
(+21%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$86.92
(+10%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$53.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced OGS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's OGS price and gamma walls.
