OSBC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OSBC - Old Second Bancorp Inc
$20.24
0.40 (2.02%)
▲
5d:
+1.81%
30d:
+3.79%
90d:
+11.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OSBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OSBC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.94
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.11
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OSBC is currently trading at $20.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.55 to $20.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OSBC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.95, while resistance sits at $22.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.80 (+17.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OSBC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.95, while resistance sits at $22.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.80 (+17.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$19.55 -
$20.60
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.80)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.55 -
$20.60
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.44
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.95
Resistance Level
$22.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.93
Wall Street Target
$23.80
(+17.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.6%
Profit Margin
25.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.10
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$19.96
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$19.82
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$20.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.4%)
$59.16
(+192%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.4%)
$23.70
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 5.4%)
$20.14
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.62
Bull Case
$30.05
(+52%)
Analyst growth 40.0%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$27.32
(+38%)
Market implied 40.0%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$13.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$20.62
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OSBC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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