OZK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OZK - Bank OZK
$47.56
0.31 (0.66%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OZK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OZK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.80
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OZK is currently trading at $47.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.56 to $47.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OZK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.64, while resistance sits at $49.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.78 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OZK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.64, while resistance sits at $49.69.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.78 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$46.56 -
$47.98
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($53.78)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$46.56 -
$47.98
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.64
Resistance Level
$49.69
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.35
Wall Street Target
$53.78
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
46.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.04
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$46.52
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$46.01
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$47.59
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.0%)
$181.89
(+282%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 8.0%)
$59.93
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 8.0%)
$50.94
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.20
Bull Case
$53.75
(+13%)
Analyst growth 4.4%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$48.86
(+3%)
Market implied 4.4%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$31.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$49.19
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OZK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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