PAGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAGS - PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
$11.25
-0.75 (-6.25%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 20, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAGS trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: PAGS trades at premium valuation expecting 5.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.03
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAGS is currently trading at $11.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.61 to $11.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.76, while resistance sits at $12.32. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAGS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $9.76, while resistance sits at $12.32. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAGS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$9.61 -
$11.09
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAGS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.65)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.9% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.61 -
$11.09
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.76
Resistance Level
$12.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.40
Wall Street Target
$12.65
(+5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.5%
Profit Margin
11.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.71
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$13.46
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$14.25
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.25
(+2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.7%)
$266.94
(+2125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 11.7%)
$16.71
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 11.7%)
$14.20
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.38
Bull Case
$26.03
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$23.66
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.6
Bear Case
$8.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PAGS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAGS price and gamma walls.