PAGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAGS - PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
$9.71
0.06 (0.62%)
▲
5d:
-2.8%
30d:
-8.48%
90d:
-0.61%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
PAGS is down 5.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $12 2026-05-15 with 10,059 OI. Call ratio: 87% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
Get Alerted When PAGS Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAGS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAGS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.85
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.46
7.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAGS is currently trading at $9.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.60 to $10.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.0) compared to its historical average (1.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.20, while resistance sits at $10.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+27.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.20, while resistance sits at $10.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+27.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$9.60 -
$10.65
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.3% below Wall St target ($12.36)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.60 -
$10.65
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.20
Resistance Level
$10.34
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.00
Wall Street Target
$12.36
(+27.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.0 vs 1.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.21
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$8.73
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$8.27
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$9.94
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.3%)
$299.40
(+2984%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.0, Growth: 11.3%)
$13.37
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$11.37
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$20.66
(+107%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.7
Base Case
$18.78
(+88%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.0
Bear Case
$6.39
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.0 to 1.2
Stabilization Target:
$11.67
(+20.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PAGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Software - Infrastructure Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Infrastructure by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation |
STRONG BUY
61 analysts |
$595 | 63 BUY |
|
CYBR
CyberArk Software Ltd |
STRONG BUY
38 analysts |
$475 | 52 HOLD |
|
S
SentinelOne Inc |
STRONG BUY
36 analysts |
$19 | 55 HOLD |
|
XYZ
Block, Inc |
STRONG BUY
49 analysts |
$86 | 48 HOLD |
|
MDB
MongoDB |
STRONG BUY
40 analysts |
$353 | 46 HOLD |
Advanced PAGS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAGS price and gamma walls.