PDLB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PDLB - Ponce Financial Group, Inc. Common Stock
$16.78
0.42 (2.57%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PDLB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PDLB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.42
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PDLB is currently trading at $16.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.14 to $16.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 181.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PDLB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.91, while resistance sits at $17.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PDLB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.91, while resistance sits at $17.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$16.14 -
$16.78
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($18.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.14 -
$16.78
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.24
(1.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.91
Resistance Level
$17.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.52
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
181.6%
Profit Margin
22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.92
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$15.49
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$15.07
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$16.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.2%)
$41.27
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 9.2%)
$21.32
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 9.2%)
$18.12
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.20
Bull Case
$21.83
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$19.84
(+18%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$11.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.5
Stabilization Target:
$17.75
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PDLB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PDLB price and gamma walls.
