PENG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PENG - Penguin Solutions, Inc. Ordinary Shares
$19.21
-0.53 (-2.68%)
▼
5d:
-3.95%
30d:
-4.09%
90d:
-14.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 01, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PENG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PENG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.20
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.86
12.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PENG is currently trading at $19.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.35 to $20.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PENG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PENG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.88 (+39.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PENG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.04. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PENG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.88 (+39.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$19.35 -
$20.56
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PENG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.9% below Wall St target ($26.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.35 -
$20.56
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.22
(6.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.04
Resistance Level
$21.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.98
Wall Street Target
$26.88
(+39.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-61.1%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.67
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$18.15
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$17.64
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$19.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 18.1%)
$88.44
(+360%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 18.1%)
$31.64
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 18.1%)
$26.90
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 12.48 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.54
Bull Case
$23.20
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$19.21
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$14.70
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$20.95
(+9.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.0%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 4:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PENG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PENG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PENG price and gamma walls.
