PFS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFS - Provident Financial Services, Inc.
$21.16
0.36 (1.73%)
▲
5d:
+1.54%
30d:
-1.58%
90d:
+4.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PFS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.86
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.92
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFS is currently trading at $21.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.35 to $21.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 72.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.00 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.00 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$20.35 -
$21.71
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
55th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 55th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.35 -
$21.71
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.66
(7.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.91
Resistance Level
$21.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.36
Wall Street Target
$25.00
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
72.1%
Profit Margin
33.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.03
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$20.91
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$20.78
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$21.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.1%)
$71.51
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 8.1%)
$26.74
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 8.1%)
$22.73
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.23
Bull Case
$25.34
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$23.04
(+12%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$13.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$21.52
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher P Martin
SELL
1050 shares
2026-02-05
George Lista
SELL
8262 shares
2025-11-06
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