PROV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$16.16
-0.04 (-0.25%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 02, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PROV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PROV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.86
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.06
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $16.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.99 to $16.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 70.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$15.99 -
$16.20
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.99 -
$16.20
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.76
Resistance Level
$16.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.14
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.2%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 13.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.06
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$15.97
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$15.87
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$16.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.0%)
$41.67
(+158%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 15.0%)
$24.55
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 15.0%)
$20.87
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.90
Bull Case
$24.35
(+51%)
Analyst growth 36.7%, PE expands to 19.8
Base Case
$22.14
(+37%)
Market implied 36.7%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$11.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$16.48
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 6:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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