PROV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PROV - Provident Financial Hldgs
$16.12
0.07 (0.44%)
▲
5d:
+0.12%
30d:
+0.69%
90d:
+0.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PROV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PROV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.94
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.24
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PROV is currently trading at $16.12, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.98 to $16.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 70.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PROV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PROV is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PROV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$15.98 -
$16.16
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.98 -
$16.16
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.81
Resistance Level
$16.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.25
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(-0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.2%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 13.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.75
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$15.45
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$15.15
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$16.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$37.15
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 8.3%)
$20.37
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$17.31
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$23.33
(+44%)
Analyst growth 32.3%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$21.21
(+31%)
Market implied 32.3%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$10.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$17.03
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PROV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gwendolyn Wertz
SELL
4800 shares
2025-11-12
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