RARE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$21.42
0.47 (2.24%)
▲
5d:
+7.91%
30d:
-2.95%
90d:
-5.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
RARE is down 13.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $25 2026-05-15 with 2,213 OI. Call ratio: 91% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RARE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RARE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $21.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.09 to $22.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 264.8) is in line with its historical norms (254.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RARE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.45 (+144.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RARE has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.45 (+144.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$20.09 -
$22.68
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 144.9% below Wall St target ($52.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.09 -
$22.68
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.29
Resistance Level
$21.41
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
264.77
Wall Street Target
$52.45
(+144.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.9%
Profit Margin
-85.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
264.8 vs 254.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.70
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$21.98
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$22.27
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 265→254)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RARE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard Horn
SELL
1635 shares
2026-03-03
Emil D Kakkis
SELL
54404 shares
2026-03-02
Eric Crombez
SELL
7029 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
