INCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$116.86
3.05 (2.68%)
▲
5d:
+8.68%
30d:
+26.69%
90d:
+23.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: INCY is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: INCY is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$188.43
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.00
0.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $116.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.12 to $110.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $118.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: INCY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $118.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: INCY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$97.12 -
$110.23
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
INCY is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($111.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$97.12 -
$110.23
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.09
Resistance Level
$118.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.65
Wall Street Target
$111.27
(-4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.8%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.66
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$122.54
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$125.48
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$117.05
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.4%)
$342.71
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 19.4%)
$199.04
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 19.4%)
$169.18
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.08
Bull Case
$163.36
(+40%)
Analyst growth 30.5%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$148.51
(+27%)
Market implied 30.5%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$77.39
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-04-17
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-03-17
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INCY price and gamma walls.
