INCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$97.63
-1.19 (-1.20%)
▼
5d:
-0.14%
30d:
+0.55%
90d:
-3.1%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: INCY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.4% annual earnings decline despite 84% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: INCY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.4% annual earnings decline despite 84% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$178.91
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.09
12.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $97.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.40 to $98.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: INCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.50 (+11.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: INCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.50 (+11.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$95.40 -
$98.56
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($108.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.40 -
$98.56
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.82
Resistance Level
$103.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.79
Wall Street Target
$108.50
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.8%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 12.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.31
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$91.10
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$88.01
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$97.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 17.2%)
$321.01
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 17.2%)
$157.13
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 17.2%)
$133.56
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.08
Bull Case
$138.94
(+42%)
Analyst growth 27.8%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$126.31
(+29%)
Market implied 27.8%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$67.20
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$108.59
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-04-17
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-03-17
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INCY price and gamma walls.
