REPX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REPX - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.
$36.71
-0.46 (-1.24%)
▼
5d:
+5.55%
30d:
+27.29%
90d:
+41.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: REPX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: REPX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.42
25.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REPX is currently trading at $36.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.35 to $35.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.5) compared to its historical average (6.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 686.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: REPX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.00 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REPX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: REPX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.00 (+22.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$29.35 -
$35.54
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($45.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.35 -
$35.54
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.67
(7.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.12
Resistance Level
$37.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.48
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
686.0%
Profit Margin
41.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.5 vs 6.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.35
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$34.04
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$32.78
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$36.50
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 49.1%)
$496.46
(+1252%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.5, Growth: 49.1%)
$121.71
(+232%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.7, Growth: 49.1%)
$103.45
(+182%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.61
Bull Case
$33.87
(-3%)
Analyst growth -12.0%, PE expands to 5.1
Base Case
$30.79
(-12%)
Market implied -12.0%, PE stable at 4.6
Bear Case
$23.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.5 to 6.1
Stabilization Target:
$40.87
(+11.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REPX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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