RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$94.81
1.52 (1.63%)
▲
5d:
+8.3%
30d:
-0.52%
90d:
+17.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 20, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RIO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RIO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.36
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.84
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $94.81, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.79 to $96.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $94.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $94.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$86.79 -
$96.65
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($95.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$86.79 -
$96.65
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.35
Resistance Level
$94.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.00
Wall Street Target
$95.55
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$93.67
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$92.55
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$91.44
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$94.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 6.0%)
$229.51
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 6.0%)
$112.98
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 6.0%)
$96.04
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.09
Bull Case
$129.42
(+51%)
Analyst growth 41.5%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$117.65
(+37%)
Market implied 41.5%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$56.54
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$98.23
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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