RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$88.82
2.18 (2.52%)
▲
5d:
+3.47%
30d:
-10.59%
90d:
+8.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 20, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.36
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.84
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $88.82, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.84 to $96.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $91.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $91.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$86.84 -
$96.97
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($95.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$86.84 -
$96.97
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.35
Resistance Level
$91.02
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.31
Wall Street Target
$95.55
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.80
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$82.88
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$80.06
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$88.55
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 6.0%)
$229.51
(+158%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 6.0%)
$105.85
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$89.97
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.09
Bull Case
$129.42
(+51%)
Analyst growth 41.5%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$117.65
(+37%)
Market implied 41.5%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$56.54
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$98.23
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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