RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$91.03
-4.10 (-4.31%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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2 traders called RIO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$127.76
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$79.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $91.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.95 to $89.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.25, while resistance sits at $97.11. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.25, while resistance sits at $97.11. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$80.95 -
$89.73
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RIO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($87.12)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with 0.3% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$80.95 -
$89.73
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.25
Resistance Level
$97.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.83
Wall Street Target
$87.12
(-8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.3%
Profit Margin
19.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.89
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$100.73
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$103.65
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$95.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.8%)
$231.06
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 11.8%)
$132.94
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 11.8%)
$113.00
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.27
Bull Case
$121.46
(+33%)
Analyst growth 18.3%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$110.42
(+21%)
Market implied 18.3%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$63.49
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RIO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RIO price and gamma walls.
