ROST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ROST - Ross Stores Inc
$208.67
-3.03 (-1.43%)
▼
5d:
-2.08%
30d:
+1.47%
90d:
+15.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ROST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ROST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$256.62
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$159.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ROST is currently trading at $208.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.10 to $213.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.4) is in line with its historical norms (27.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ROST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $206.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ROST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $206.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$203.10 -
$213.69
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($229.81)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$203.10 -
$213.69
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$206.63
Resistance Level
$217.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.37
Wall Street Target
$229.81
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
29.4 vs 27.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$216.77
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$221.97
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$227.30
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$211.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.4, Growth: 10.7%)
$287.35
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.7%)
$219.19
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.7%)
$186.31
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.61
Bull Case
$253.36
(+19%)
Analyst growth 9.1%, PE expands to 35.2
Base Case
$230.33
(+8%)
Market implied 9.1%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case
$143.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ROST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Patricia H Mueller
SELL
1881 shares
2026-03-10
Karen Sykes
SELL
2556 shares
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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