ROST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ROST - Ross Stores Inc
$188.65
2.15 (1.15%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ROST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ROST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$253.44
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$157.37
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ROST is currently trading at $188.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $182.55 to $191.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.1) is in line with its historical norms (26.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ROST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $184.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ROST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $184.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$182.55 -
$191.28
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($193.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$182.55 -
$191.28
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.69
Resistance Level
$194.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.08
Wall Street Target
$193.25
(+3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.8%
Profit Margin
9.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.1 vs 26.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$185.57
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$184.64
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$183.72
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→27)
$186.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.1, Growth: 10.5%)
$251.42
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.5%)
$215.02
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.5%)
$182.76
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.40
Bull Case
$228.70
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.8%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$207.91
(+10%)
Market implied 11.8%, PE stable at 29.1
Bear Case
$126.51
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.1 to 26.5
Stabilization Target:
$189.54
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ROST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen C Brinkley
SELL
6437 shares
2025-10-08
Karen Fleming
SELL
2932 shares
2025-09-25
James Grant Conroy
SELL
39351 shares
2025-09-24
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Advanced ROST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ROST price and gamma walls.
