TJX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TJX - TJX Companies, Inc. (The)
$158.27
0.81 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
+7.35%
30d:
-0.05%
90d:
+0.37%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TJX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TJX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.62
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TJX is currently trading at $158.27, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.38 to $159.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.7) is in line with its historical norms (30.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TJX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TJX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$151.38 -
$159.61
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($174.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.38 -
$159.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$146.14
Resistance Level
$160.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.67
Wall Street Target
$174.11
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.7 vs 30.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$158.11
(0%)
2-Year Target
$157.95
(0%)
3-Year Target
$157.80
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→31)
$158.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.7, Growth: 10.2%)
$212.05
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 10.2%)
$152.06
(-4%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 10.2%)
$129.25
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.13
Bull Case
$174.26
(+10%)
Analyst growth 0.6%, PE expands to 33.8
Base Case
$158.41
(+0%)
Market implied 0.6%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$107.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.7 to 30.8
Stabilization Target:
$158.96
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TJX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Ernie Herrman
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-02
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-06
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