RUN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$12.27
-0.33 (-2.62%)
▼
5d:
-0.65%
30d:
-7.4%
90d:
-40.06%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
RUN is down 9.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-04-17 with 2,992 OI. Call ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.11
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $12.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.85 to $17.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.1) is in line with its historical norms (29.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 95.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.75 (+72.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.75 (+72.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$10.85 -
$17.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 72.6% below Wall St target ($21.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.85 -
$17.23
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.98
Resistance Level
$13.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.07
Wall Street Target
$21.75
(+72.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
123.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
95.7%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.1 vs 29.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$12.10
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$11.86
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→30)
$12.59
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.1, Growth: 13.7%)
$18.51
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.7%)
$14.77
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.7%)
$12.55
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case
$6.72
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$6.11
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$8.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.1 to 29.8
Stabilization Target:
$13.38
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeanna Steele
SELL
901 shares
2026-03-06
Lynn Michelle Jurich
SELL
450 shares
2026-03-06
Mary Powell
SELL
2229 shares
2026-03-06
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