RUN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$13.50
-0.65 (-4.59%)
▼
5d:
+8.87%
30d:
+10.93%
90d:
-26.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
RUN is down 9.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-04-17 with 2,992 OI. Call ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.11
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $13.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.92 to $16.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.5) is in line with its historical norms (29.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.98, while resistance sits at $14.29. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.68 (+53.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.98, while resistance sits at $14.29. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.68 (+53.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$10.92 -
$16.23
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 53.2% below Wall St target ($21.68)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.92 -
$16.23
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.98
Resistance Level
$14.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.52
Wall Street Target
$21.68
(+53.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
123.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
95.7%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
31.5 vs 29.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.42
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$14.69
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$14.97
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.5, Growth: 13.7%)
$20.78
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.7%)
$14.74
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 13.7%)
$12.53
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case
$6.72
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$6.11
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$8.31
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeanna Steele
SELL
901 shares
2026-03-06
Lynn Michelle Jurich
SELL
450 shares
2026-03-06
Mary Powell
SELL
2229 shares
2026-03-06
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