SBCF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SBCF - Seacoast Banking Corp of Florida
$30.29
0.84 (2.85%)
▲
5d:
+1.22%
30d:
-5.4%
90d:
-5.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SBCF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SBCF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.04
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.59
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SBCF is currently trading at $30.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.52 to $31.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBCF is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $30.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.10 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SBCF is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $30.63. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.10 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$29.52 -
$31.94
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($36.10)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.52 -
$31.94
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.09
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.69
Resistance Level
$30.63
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.01
Wall Street Target
$36.10
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.4%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.26
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$28.27
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$27.30
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$30.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$79.87
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 9.1%)
$39.36
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$33.46
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$56.51
(+88%)
Analyst growth 75.2%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$51.37
(+71%)
Market implied 75.2%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$19.94
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$33.55
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SBCF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dennis S Hudson III
SELL
8000 shares
2026-03-04
Joseph M Forlenza
SELL
12635 shares
2026-02-26
Joseph B Shearouse III
BUY
4000 shares
2026-02-12
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