SDHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SDHC - Smith Douglas Homes Corp.
$18.04
-0.11 (-0.61%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SDHC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SDHC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.28
Based on -13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.52
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SDHC is currently trading at $18.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.24 to $20.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.0) is in line with its historical norms (26.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SDHC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.11, while resistance sits at $22.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SDHC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.11, while resistance sits at $22.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$17.24 -
$20.32
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($16.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with -5.7% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.0% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.24 -
$20.32
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.11
Resistance Level
$22.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.01
Wall Street Target
$16.50
(-9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.4%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
29.0 vs 26.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.62
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$19.11
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$19.60
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.0, Growth: -30.6%)
$13.23
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -30.6%)
$10.17
(-44%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -30.6%)
$8.65
(-52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$9.89
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$9.00
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$12.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SDHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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