SFST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFST - Southern First Bancshares, Inc.
$54.50
0.63 (1.17%)
▲
5d:
+1.95%
30d:
-2.47%
90d:
+4.57%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SFST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.5% annual earnings decline despite 75% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SFST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.5% annual earnings decline despite 75% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.62
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.44
19.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFST is currently trading at $54.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.63 to $57.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $55.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $55.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SFST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+17.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$51.63 -
$57.43
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($64.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$51.63 -
$57.43
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.93
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.54
Resistance Level
$55.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.52
Wall Street Target
$64.00
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.2%
Profit Margin
26.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.50
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$48.67
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$45.99
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$54.55
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.1%)
$235.50
(+332%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 18.1%)
$89.73
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 18.1%)
$76.27
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$98.30
(+84%)
Analyst growth 72.0%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$89.36
(+68%)
Market implied 72.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$35.32
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$64.64
(+18.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William Iv Maner
BUY
400 shares
2026-03-06
Silvia T King
SELL
2625 shares
2026-02-26
David G Ellison
SELL
1000 shares
2025-12-10
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