SFST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFST - Southern First Bancshares, Inc.
$54.94
0.28 (0.51%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.47
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.18
25.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFST is currently trading at $54.94, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.01 to $55.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $49.61, while resistance sits at $58.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $49.61, while resistance sits at $58.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$52.01 -
$55.36
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($57.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$52.01 -
$55.36
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.96
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$49.61
Resistance Level
$58.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.23
Wall Street Target
$57.50
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.2%
Profit Margin
26.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 11.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.78
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$47.17
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$43.82
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$54.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 20.1%)
$228.59
(+318%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 20.1%)
$94.64
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 20.1%)
$80.45
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.75
Bull Case
$93.25
(+70%)
Analyst growth 57.9%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$84.77
(+54%)
Market implied 57.9%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$36.52
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$68.08
(+24.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Leighton M Cubbage
SELL
35 shares
2025-08-27
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Advanced SFST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SFST price and gamma walls.
