SM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SM - SM Energy Company
$19.47
0.60 (3.18%)
▲
5d:
+4.23%
30d:
+3.67%
90d:
-5.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
15d
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3 traders called SM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.65
Based on -19.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.51
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SM is currently trading at $19.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.15 to $19.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.99, while resistance sits at $20.16. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: SM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.45 (+56.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.99, while resistance sits at $20.16. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: SM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.45 (+56.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$18.15 -
$19.06
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 56.4% below Wall St target ($30.45)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 26.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.15 -
$19.06
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.99
Resistance Level
$20.16
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.26
Wall Street Target
$30.45
(+56.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.4%
Profit Margin
23.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.76
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$20.06
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$20.36
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.51
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -43.0%)
$50.56
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: -43.0%)
$14.19
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: -43.0%)
$12.06
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.33
Bull Case
$10.55
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 3.3
Base Case
$9.59
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 3.0
Bear Case
$13.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 02, 2026 12:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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