SM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SM - SM Energy Company
$29.50
-1.68 (-5.39%)
▼
5d:
-6.35%
30d:
+22.46%
90d:
+57.08%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SM is down 6.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $32.5 2026-05-15 with 1,917 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.06
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.56
12.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SM is currently trading at $29.50, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.56 to $30.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.56, while resistance sits at $33.25. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: SM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.56, while resistance sits at $33.25. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: SM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$23.56 -
$30.19
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($31.17)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.3% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.56 -
$30.19
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.56
Resistance Level
$33.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.29
Wall Street Target
$31.17
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-17.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.3%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 5.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.47
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$27.47
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$26.51
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$29.55
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.1%)
$200.23
(+579%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 17.1%)
$47.42
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 17.1%)
$40.31
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.64
Bull Case
$32.65
(+12%)
Analyst growth -1.2%, PE expands to 5.9
Base Case
$29.68
(+2%)
Market implied -1.2%, PE stable at 5.3
Bear Case
$20.43
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$32.88
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SM price and gamma walls.
