SPFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SPFI - South Plains Financial, Inc. Common Stock
$41.66
0.79 (1.93%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SPFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SPFI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.46
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.78
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SPFI is currently trading at $41.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.98 to $41.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPFI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.78, while resistance sits at $43.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.75 (+12.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SPFI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $39.78, while resistance sits at $43.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.75 (+12.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$38.98 -
$41.28
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SPFI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($46.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.98 -
$41.28
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.15
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.78
Resistance Level
$43.90
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.93
Wall Street Target
$46.75
(+12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.45
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$39.28
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$38.14
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$41.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$122.20
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 9.3%)
$54.42
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 9.3%)
$46.26
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$52.23
(+25%)
Analyst growth 16.9%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$47.48
(+14%)
Market implied 16.9%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$27.63
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$45.31
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 11:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SPFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard D Campbell
SELL
15583 shares
2025-09-12
Richard D Campbell
SELL
44417 shares
2025-09-11
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Advanced SPFI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SPFI price and gamma walls.
