SWX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWX - Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.
$86.63
-0.68 (-0.78%)
▼
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
-2.11%
90d:
+6.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SWX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.23
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.46
17.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWX is currently trading at $86.63, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.12 to $88.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (19.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$86.12 -
$88.43
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($92.43)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$86.12 -
$88.43
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.63
(3.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.51
Resistance Level
$88.96
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.40
Wall Street Target
$92.43
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.3%
Profit Margin
22.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 19.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.25
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$81.31
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$78.46
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$87.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.4%)
$190.88
(+119%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 19.4%)
$148.64
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 19.4%)
$126.34
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.25
Bull Case
$141.92
(+65%)
Analyst growth 54.4%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$129.02
(+50%)
Market implied 54.4%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$56.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 19.4
Stabilization Target:
$97.33
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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