TAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$12.70
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: TAL is 7.4% above fair value ($11.82). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: TAL is 7.4% above fair value ($11.82). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.50
5.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $12.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.73 to $11.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (18.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.62, while resistance sits at $13.23.
Market Sentiment: TAL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.65 (+15.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.62, while resistance sits at $13.23.
Market Sentiment: TAL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.65 (+15.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$10.73 -
$11.82
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TAL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.4% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.65)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.73 -
$11.82
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.62
Resistance Level
$13.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.04
Wall Street Target
$14.65
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
128.6%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 18.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.26
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$13.84
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$14.45
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.70
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 30.3%)
$29.75
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 30.3%)
$28.07
(+121%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 30.3%)
$23.86
(+88%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$23.43
(+85%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 41.8
Base Case
$21.30
(+68%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.0
Bear Case
$7.24
(-43%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TAL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TAL price and gamma walls.
