TAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$11.07
0.24 (2.26%)
▲
5d:
-0.76%
30d:
+5.08%
90d:
+0.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.49
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.34
17.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $11.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.66 to $11.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 535.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.65 (+44.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.65 (+44.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$10.66 -
$11.22
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.6% below Wall St target ($15.65)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$10.66 -
$11.22
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.82
Resistance Level
$11.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.75
Wall Street Target
$15.65
(+44.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
535.7%
Profit Margin
9.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 15.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.34
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.89
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$9.45
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$10.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.7%)
$30.26
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 19.7%)
$18.57
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 19.7%)
$15.79
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.48
Bull Case
$20.61
(+85%)
Analyst growth 63.9%, PE expands to 26.2
Base Case
$18.74
(+68%)
Market implied 63.9%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$7.77
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$12.35
(+14.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 9:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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