TCBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBI - Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
$101.17
0.14 (0.14%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.63
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.01
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBI is currently trading at $101.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.22 to $99.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $96.25, while resistance sits at $105.36.
Market Sentiment: TCBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $96.25, while resistance sits at $105.36.
Market Sentiment: TCBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$93.22 -
$99.42
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.79)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$93.22 -
$99.42
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.65
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.25
Resistance Level
$105.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.14
Wall Street Target
$105.79
(+4.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.91
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$96.83
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$94.80
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$100.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$254.85
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 11.2%)
$138.73
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$117.92
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.79
Bull Case
$131.63
(+30%)
Analyst growth 22.6%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$119.66
(+18%)
Market implied 22.6%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$66.39
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$107.36
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TCBI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCBI price and gamma walls.
