TCBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$49.82
0.35 (0.71%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCBK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TCBK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.92
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.07
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $49.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.72 to $49.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.17 (+11.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.17 (+11.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$47.72 -
$49.76
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TCBK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($55.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$47.72 -
$49.76
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.49
Resistance Level
$52.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.76
Wall Street Target
$55.17
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
29.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.88
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$48.29
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$47.71
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$49.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.3%)
$106.46
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 4.3%)
$56.12
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 4.3%)
$47.70
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.70
Bull Case
$61.38
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.7%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$55.80
(+13%)
Market implied 13.7%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$33.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$51.34
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TCBK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCBK price and gamma walls.
