TCBK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBK - Trico Bancshares
$47.54
0.44 (0.94%)
▲
5d:
+0.69%
30d:
-1.71%
90d:
-0.82%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCBK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.37
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.11
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBK is currently trading at $47.53, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.59 to $48.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.17 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $55.17 (+17.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$46.59 -
$48.84
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($55.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$46.59 -
$48.84
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.37
Resistance Level
$48.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.19
Wall Street Target
$55.17
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.2%
Profit Margin
30.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 11.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.15
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$45.23
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$44.32
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$47.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.3%)
$106.70
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 4.3%)
$53.42
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 4.3%)
$45.41
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.70
Bull Case
$57.65
(+22%)
Analyst growth 13.7%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$52.41
(+11%)
Market implied 13.7%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$31.33
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 11.9
Stabilization Target:
$50.08
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:05 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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