TCMD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCMD - Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.
$28.86
0.28 (0.98%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCMD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TCMD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.09
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.27
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCMD is currently trading at $28.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.86 to $30.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.2) is in line with its historical norms (29.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCMD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCMD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$28.86 -
$30.36
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($29.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$28.86 -
$30.36
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.77
(9.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.08
Resistance Level
$31.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.24
Wall Street Target
$29.75
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
30.2 vs 29.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.72
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$28.87
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$29.01
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→30)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.59
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.2, Growth: 17.4%)
$46.23
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.4%)
$34.09
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.4%)
$28.98
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.76
Bull Case
$39.82
(+39%)
Analyst growth 24.3%, PE expands to 42.1
Base Case
$36.20
(+27%)
Market implied 24.3%, PE stable at 38.3
Bear Case
$19.79
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCMD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sheri Louise Dodd
SELL
7762 shares
2025-08-08
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Advanced TCMD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCMD price and gamma walls.
