TCOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCOM - Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
$48.49
-1.73 (-3.44%)
▼
5d:
-5.03%
30d:
-7.23%
90d:
-33.01%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 18, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TCOM is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $55 2026-04-17 with 4,054 OI. Call ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TCOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.70
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.32
13.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCOM is currently trading at $48.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.80 to $54.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.5) compared to its historical average (1.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 97.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: TCOM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.86 (+56.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: TCOM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.86 (+56.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$50.80 -
$54.21
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TCOM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 56.4% below Wall St target ($75.86)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.0% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.80 -
$54.21
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.68
Resistance Level
$52.91
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.52
Wall Street Target
$75.86
(+56.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
97.8%
Profit Margin
53.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.00
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$41.76
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$38.75
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$48.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.9%)
$1028.51
(+2021%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 12.9%)
$69.82
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.3, Growth: 12.9%)
$59.35
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.93
Bull Case
$112.33
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$102.12
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$34.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.5 to 1.9
Stabilization Target:
$60.59
(+24.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TCOM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCOM price and gamma walls.