TCOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCOM - Trip.com Group Limited American Depositary Shares
$61.37
-0.65 (-1.05%)
ā¼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š HOLD: TCOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
š HOLD: TCOM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.65
Based on -15.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.55
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCOM is currently trading at $61.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.65 to $75.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.1) is in line with its historical norms (2.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 188.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $60.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCOM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.84 (+40.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCOM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $60.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TCOM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.84 (+40.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$62.65 -
$75.31
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: Trading 40.0% below Wall St target ($86.84)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$62.65 -
$75.31
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.14
Resistance Level
$64.24
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.08
Wall Street Target
$86.84
(+40.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
188.1%
Profit Margin
52.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.1 vs 2.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.41
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$58.84
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$57.31
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2ā2)
$60.56
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -34.7%)
$484.33
(+681%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.1, Growth: -34.7%)
$45.21
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.8, Growth: -34.7%)
$38.43
(-38%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.73
Bull Case
$137.28
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$124.80
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$42.43
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
š”
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.1 to 2.2
Stabilization Target:
$65.54
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCOM price and gamma walls.