TEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TEL - TE Connectivity plc
$199.02
-3.13 (-1.55%)
▼
5d:
-0.88%
30d:
-13.53%
90d:
-14.4%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
Smart Money Distribution
TEL is up 3.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $210 2026-04-17 with 3,827 OI. Put ratio: 92% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.7% annual earnings decline despite 44% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.7% annual earnings decline despite 44% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$353.09
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$219.24
9.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $199.01, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $197.11 to $226.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 44.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $191.12, while resistance sits at $211.48.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $275.37 (+36.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $191.12, while resistance sits at $211.48.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $275.37 (+36.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$197.11 -
$226.07
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.2% below Wall St target ($275.37)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$197.11 -
$226.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$191.12
Resistance Level
$211.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.34
Wall Street Target
$275.37
(+36.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.4%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 19.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$190.62
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$179.75
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$169.51
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$202.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$387.85
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 11.9%)
$282.88
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 11.9%)
$240.45
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.93
Bull Case
$384.61
(+92%)
Analyst growth 78.5%, PE expands to 31.1
Base Case
$349.65
(+74%)
Market implied 78.5%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$133.17
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$241.27
(+19.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-03-02
Reuben M Shaffer
SELL
1425 shares
2026-02-13
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced TEL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TEL price and gamma walls.