TEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TEL - TE Connectivity plc
$226.35
-0.78 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
-1.92%
30d:
-2.95%
90d:
-8.36%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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1 traders called TEL this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.7% annual earnings decline despite 44% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.7% annual earnings decline despite 44% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$382.06
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$237.23
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $226.35, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $225.80 to $235.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 44.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $221.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $272.00 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $221.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $272.00 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$225.80 -
$235.71
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($272.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$225.80 -
$235.71
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$221.05
Resistance Level
$239.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.29
Wall Street Target
$272.00
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
44.4%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 21.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$215.71
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$205.57
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$195.91
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$225.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.9%)
$386.12
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 11.9%)
$316.76
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 11.9%)
$269.25
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.09
Bull Case
$436.00
(+93%)
Analyst growth 74.5%, PE expands to 35.2
Base Case
$396.36
(+75%)
Market implied 74.5%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case
$154.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$261.06
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Last updated: February 03, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
23850 shares
2025-09-02
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