APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$125.00
-4.19 (-3.24%)
▼
5d:
-2.37%
30d:
-16.08%
90d:
-14.8%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
APH is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 5,609 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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5 traders called APH this week
83% bullish • 1 bearish
83% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$230.27
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$142.98
12.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $125.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.62 to $149.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.2) compared to its historical average (29.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $181.72 (+45.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $181.72 (+45.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$130.62 -
$149.56
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 45.4% below Wall St target ($181.72)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$130.62 -
$149.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$121.43
Resistance Level
$144.12
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.21
Wall Street Target
$181.72
(+45.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.2 vs 29.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.12
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$104.20
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$95.13
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→29)
$125.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.2, Growth: 16.9%)
$199.78
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.9%)
$198.50
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 16.9%)
$168.73
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.48
Bull Case
$229.81
(+84%)
Analyst growth 61.7%, PE expands to 40.8
Base Case
$208.92
(+67%)
Market implied 61.7%, PE stable at 37.1
Bear Case
$87.85
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.2 to 29.2
Stabilization Target:
$164.33
(+31.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Adam Norwitt
SELL
515281 shares
2026-02-12
William J Doherty
SELL
80000 shares
2025-12-02
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APH price and gamma walls.
