TFPM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$35.81
-0.09 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
+13.25%
30d:
-8.81%
90d:
+7.8%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFPM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.4% annual earnings decline despite 81% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFPM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.4% annual earnings decline despite 81% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.57
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.85
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $35.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.14 to $39.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.8) compared to its historical average (27.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 81.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFPM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.00 (+25.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFPM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.00 (+25.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$33.14 -
$39.57
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.7% below Wall St target ($45.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.14 -
$39.57
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.04
Resistance Level
$36.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.76
Wall Street Target
$45.00
(+25.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
60.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
81.4%
Profit Margin
61.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 27.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.16
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$30.71
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$28.43
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→27)
$35.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$52.45
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 13.6%)
$49.58
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 13.6%)
$42.14
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.18
Bull Case
$45.16
(+43%)
Analyst growth 34.4%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$41.05
(+30%)
Market implied 34.4%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$20.77
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.8 to 27.4
Stabilization Target:
$45.09
(+25.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 03, 2026 1:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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