TFPM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$33.72
-3.68 (-9.84%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TFPM is down 12.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TFPM is down 12.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.10
13.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $33.72, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.96 to $37.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.9) is in line with its historical norms (30.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 103.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$33.96 -
$37.83
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TFPM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.96 -
$37.83
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.60
Resistance Level
$40.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.92
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+4.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
103.8%
Profit Margin
59.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.9 vs 30.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.69
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$35.99
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$35.31
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→31)
$37.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.9, Growth: 30.1%)
$82.35
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 30.1%)
$63.51
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 30.1%)
$53.98
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.01
Bull Case
$55.58
(+65%)
Analyst growth 28.0%, PE expands to 43.0
Base Case
$50.53
(+50%)
Market implied 28.0%, PE stable at 39.1
Bear Case
$26.83
(-20%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.9 to 30.6
Stabilization Target:
$39.57
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TFPM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TFPM price and gamma walls.
