TFSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$14.08
-0.62 (-4.19%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFSL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.01
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.46
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $14.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.69 to $14.31. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.0) is in line with its historical norms (39.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.22, while resistance sits at $14.71. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: TFSL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.22, while resistance sits at $14.71. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: TFSL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$13.69 -
$14.31
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.69 -
$14.31
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.22
Resistance Level
$14.71
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.04
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.0%
Profit Margin
28.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.0 vs 39.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$13.52
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$13.25
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→39)
$14.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.0, Growth: 5.6%)
$16.55
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.6%)
$9.97
(-29%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.6%)
$8.47
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (37x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.32
Bull Case
$18.47
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.8%, PE expands to 48.6
Base Case
$16.79
(+19%)
Market implied 18.8%, PE stable at 44.2
Bear Case
$9.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.0 to 39.3
Stabilization Target:
$14.93
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 5:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel F Weir
SELL
3900 shares
2025-09-11
Meredith S Weil
SELL
15000 shares
2025-09-02
Marc A Stefanski
SELL
7200 shares
2025-08-29
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