TFSL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFSL - TFS Financial Corporation
$14.05
0.32 (2.33%)
▲
5d:
+3.31%
30d:
-1.95%
90d:
+1.66%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFSL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFSL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.76
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.30
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFSL is currently trading at $14.05, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.49 to $14.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.6) is in line with its historical norms (39.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in -0.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $13.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFSL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFSL is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $13.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFSL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$13.49 -
$14.18
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.49 -
$14.18
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.41
(2.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.22
Resistance Level
$13.95
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.58
Wall Street Target
$14.50
(+3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Profit Margin
27.7%
PE vs Historical
39.6 vs 39.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.05
(0%)
2-Year Target
$14.05
(0%)
3-Year Target
$14.05
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→40)
$14.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.6, Growth: 7.6%)
$17.49
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.6%)
$9.88
(-30%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 7.6%)
$8.40
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.32
Bull Case
$16.34
(+20%)
Analyst growth 10.9%, PE expands to 46.0
Base Case
$14.85
(+10%)
Market implied 10.9%, PE stable at 41.8
Bear Case
$9.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 9:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFSL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony J Asher
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-12
Gavin B Stefanski
SELL
7000 shares
2026-02-20
Marc A Stefanski
SELL
36844 shares
2026-02-17
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