TJX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TJX - TJX Companies, Inc. (The)
$155.79
0.67 (0.43%)
▲
5d:
-0.45%
30d:
-3.63%
90d:
-0.84%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TJX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TJX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.62
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.77
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TJX is currently trading at $155.79, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $155.35 to $159.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.2) is in line with its historical norms (31.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 28.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $152.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.78 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $152.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.78 (+10.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$155.35 -
$159.77
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($171.78)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$155.35 -
$159.77
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$152.18
Resistance Level
$159.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.19
Wall Street Target
$171.78
(+10.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.3%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.2 vs 31.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$154.39
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$153.00
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$151.62
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→31)
$155.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.2, Growth: 10.2%)
$208.73
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.2%)
$154.55
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.2%)
$131.37
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.87
Bull Case
$180.67
(+15%)
Analyst growth 6.0%, PE expands to 35.0
Base Case
$164.24
(+5%)
Market implied 6.0%, PE stable at 31.8
Bear Case
$105.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.2 to 31.0
Stabilization Target:
$159.99
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TJX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ernie Herrman
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-02
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-06
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-05
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