TJX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TJX - TJX Companies, Inc. (The)
$149.81
2.34 (1.59%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TJX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TJX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.44
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.66
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TJX is currently trading at $149.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.29 to $157.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.1) is in line with its historical norms (31.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TJX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$151.29 -
$157.59
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($164.83)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$151.29 -
$157.59
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.83
Resistance Level
$157.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.06
Wall Street Target
$164.83
(+10.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Profit Margin
8.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.1 vs 31.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$145.62
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$141.54
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$137.58
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→32)
$149.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.1, Growth: 10.2%)
$200.55
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.2%)
$153.92
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.2%)
$130.83
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.53
Bull Case
$185.03
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.8%, PE expands to 35.9
Base Case
$168.21
(+12%)
Market implied 13.8%, PE stable at 32.6
Bear Case
$100.50
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.1 to 31.6
Stabilization Target:
$162.93
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TJX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-08-14
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