TM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares)
$226.86
-0.21 (-0.09%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
Get Alerted When TM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
1 traders called TM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$412.53
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$256.15
11.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TM is currently trading at $226.86, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $216.10 to $227.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $232.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $232.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$216.10 -
$227.45
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($244.23)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$216.10 -
$227.45
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$9.34
(4.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$217.48
Resistance Level
$232.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.31
Wall Street Target
$244.23
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
66.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$228.66
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$230.26
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$231.87
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$227.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 22.6%)
$824.41
(+263%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 22.6%)
$418.17
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 22.6%)
$355.44
(+57%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $23.18
Bull Case
$208.52
(-8%)
Analyst growth -13.4%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$189.57
(-16%)
Market implied -13.4%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$148.85
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:13 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is TM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Auto Manufacturers Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Auto Manufacturers by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
LI
Li Auto Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$24 | 57 HOLD |
|
XPEV
Xpeng Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$28 | 50 HOLD |
|
GM
General Motors Company |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$86 | 63 BUY |
|
NIO
Nio Inc Class A ADR |
BUY
27 analysts |
$7 | 64 BUY |
|
TSLA
Tesla Inc |
HOLD
47 analysts |
$411 | 56 HOLD |
Advanced TM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TM price and gamma walls.
