TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$100.70
0.29 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
-1.47%
30d:
-31.81%
90d:
-17.23%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TMDX is down 8.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $105 2026-05-15 with 67 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TMDX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TMDX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.50
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.07
10.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $100.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.62 to $140.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.2) compared to its historical average (41.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1188.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $93.08, while resistance sits at $117.90.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.30 (+60.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $93.08, while resistance sits at $117.90.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $161.30 (+60.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$110.62 -
$140.44
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TMDX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.2% below Wall St target ($161.30)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$110.62 -
$140.44
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$93.08
Resistance Level
$117.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.16
Wall Street Target
$161.30
(+60.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1188.1%
Profit Margin
31.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.2 vs 41.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$90.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$81.56
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$73.41
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→41)
$111.89
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.2, Growth: 50.4%)
$339.85
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 50.4%)
$257.39
(+156%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 50.4%)
$218.78
(+117%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 23.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.87
Bull Case
$95.38
(-15%)
Analyst growth -23.9%, PE expands to 25.7
Base Case
$86.71
(-23%)
Market implied -23.9%, PE stable at 23.4
Bear Case
$77.45
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.2 to 41.4
Stabilization Target:
$153.49
(+52.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
Stephanie Lovell
SELL
1193 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced TMDX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMDX price and gamma walls.
