TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$133.98
-5.00 (-3.59%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
24d
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1 traders called TMDX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.05
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.71
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $133.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.83 to $141.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 46.0) is in line with its historical norms (45.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $132.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $132.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$126.83 -
$141.30
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($144.73)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$126.83 -
$141.30
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$14.03
(10.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$132.02
Resistance Level
$149.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.98
Wall Street Target
$144.73
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
450.1%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
46.0 vs 45.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$134.91
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$135.86
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$136.81
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→45)
PE COMPRESSION
$134.19
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.0, Growth: 12.9%)
$192.97
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.9%)
$93.59
(-30%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.9%)
$79.55
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (56x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 55.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.54
Bull Case
$177.91
(+33%)
Analyst growth 14.7%, PE expands to 61.1
Base Case
$161.73
(+21%)
Market implied 14.7%, PE stable at 55.5
Bear Case
$95.87
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 47.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TMDX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMDX price and gamma walls.
